_edited.png)
13:40 Sandown
Hamaki makes his seasonal debut after receiving a wind operation and also being gelded. If those two stints to the vet have brought about further improvement then this former course victor could be well overpriced. That being said however a lot has to be taken on trust after a 245 day absence from racing so I’m forced to look elsewhere.
Current market favourite Maplewood produced a solid enough performance to finish 3rd at York in what looked a better race than this and is expected to go even closer this afternoon. With the Appleby yard churning out winners constantly this term and the likelihood both this better ground and longer trip should also play into his hands I’m going to have to stick with the favourite but if you can get a price of 9/2 or bigger I’d play it safe and go for an each way punt.
The one I fear most put in somewhat of a shock display to win at Haydock and it’d be foolish to ignore the Charlie Hills trained Aldhaja.
MAPLEWOOD (E/W) 14:00 York
The first of four live races from the Knavesmire sees these talented female jockeys take centre stage in this all-women jockeys handicap. Of the thirteen runners set to go to post there’s just the one former course and distance winner and that’s the one I find myself siding with. Arctic Fox has the services of promising young jockey and daughter of Fergal, Fern O’Brien who also takes an additional 3lbs off the horses back. If the phrase ‘horses for courses’ rings true then it’s hard to look past this six year old mare. She won this race back in 2019 and finished runner-up in the same race last year. She’ll have improved markedly for her recent seasonal reappearance, which came after a lengthy lay off and should strip much fitter this time around. It’s probably one of the more competitive renewals of this race in recent years but the handicapper has given her a rating that should see her go very close.
ARCTIC FOX (E/W)
14:15 Sandown
Encouraging heads the market and aims to make it a trio of back to back victories after claiming two recent wins on the all-weather. Of course the four year old deserves his place as favourite but I’m not 100% convinced he’s as much of a certainty now returning to turf. With a marked step up in class and an additional 5lbs of weight to be burdened with I’d rather look for an each-way alternative.
The one at a bigger price that catches my eye hails from the yard of John Quinn. The trainer has bagged two winners from his last ten runners so clearly has them going well at home and I’m hoping he can add to that success in the form of Empirestateofmind. The four year old did very well to finish 4th in a 20 runner cavalry charge at York and should benefit from the fewer amount of opponents this time around. I have slight concerns if the ground continues to dry out but I’d be shocked if he finished outside of the top three so I’ll go for another each-way play at Sandown.
EMPIRESTATEOFMIND (E/W)
14:35 York
Looking through the current odds and the duo at the forefront of the betting are both aiming to add to their current win streak. Boardman looks to make it three on the bounce where as fellow course and distance winner Maywake aims to land a fourth consecutive win. After the recent news that jockey Paul Hanagan parted ways with trainer Richard Fahey it’s the first glimpse we see Oisin Orr take a big Saturday ride for his new boss and he’s got a very lively chance indeed. The way that Maywake returned to racing after a 151 day stint on the sidelines to put away a twenty runner field here at York was very impressive however he’s received a 4lb rise in weight and no longer has the claim of top amateur Harry Davies to lighten the load. Will he be far away? I highly doubt it but if you ask me if he’s the likely winner it leaves me with reservations. He’s on an upward curve and is lightly raced but his weight may be enough to holt his progress today.
The aforementioned Boardman shouldn’t be far away either in his quest to make it a trio of wins on the spin. Unbeaten over course and distance he aims to keep that 100% record in tact but just like with Maywake you have to worry about when the weight is going to halt his progress. He now resides on the highest handicap mark he’s ever had before in his career and although I don’t think he’ll be far away I’m left looking for an outsider worth following.
Sticking with the theme of course and distance winners and the ever consistent Challet certainly deserves a mention. A win and three placed finishes from his last five starts indicates he rarely produces a bad performance and three of those recent positive results all came here at York. However just like fellow race rival Lion Tower who have also gone well here at York they’re now higher than their last winning marks and a runners up role is the best either can hope for.
If the rain began to pour then I’d be urging punters to follow the David O’Meara trained Young Fire who, despite making their seasonal reappearance here should do far better than his odds may suggest.
Despite the above being said I’m siding with a horse in the hope he can reverse the form he’s shown here on the Knavesmire recently. Mykonos St John was less than a length behind Maywake when third over course and distance and the weights are now very much in Scott Dixon’s charges favour. A repeat of the close 2nd behind Boardman at Chester should also see him go close once again and I’m gonna take a chance he can finish equally as close, if not better now back at this venue.
MYKONOS ST JOHN (E/W) 14:50 Sandown
The final race shown live on ITV from Sandown sees the three-year-old sprinters take centre stage in this listed contest and although there’s six runners declared I only see it as a two horse race.
It’s a tussle between a horse who’s been competing at a higher level and coming up short and a horse who’s looked impressive when winning in a lower grade.
The only threat to short priced favourite Caturra looks to be last time out winner Mitbaahy. Roger Varian’s runner claimed a victory at Hamilton but it’s hard to know just how good that form is without giving it time. I imagine it’ll push the favourite closer than some may expect but Clive Cox should see his former group race winner return to the winners enclosure.
CATURRA (WIN)
15:05 York
This 1m6f listed contest may only have a handful of runners but it looks pretty competitive. The bookmakers are finding it hard to locate a favourite with the top three in the betting only currently separated by half a point. My selection hails from the more well fancied trio and I’m going to opt for the horse representing the royal blue silks of Godolphin. Kemari finished 5th at Meydan at the start of the year but based on his previous Group 2 winning form he’s got enough in the locker to find success in a race of this nature.
Brian Meehan’s Mandoob wasn’t far away in a similar listed race at Ascot last month but I’m not overly convinced this longer trip will play to his strengths but still looks the most likely to follow home my selection.
KEMARI (WIN)
15:20 Chester When it comes to the Roudee there’s only one jockey you instantly have to look out for and that’s Franny Norton. He’s a master around this sharp left-handed circuit and no matter what he climbs aboard he demands a tonne of respect here at Chester. He’s set to partner former course winner Roman Dragon in this, the only live ITV race on the card and he has a strong claim for success. Hailing from the yard of trainer Hugo Palmer, who’s bagged five winners in the past fortnight, he should have dusted off the cobwebs for his stable debut effort at Haydock. He’s got a very good draw in stall 4 and his current price of 7/1 looks far too generous. Unlike a plethora of his rivals he’s had a light campaign and is really hard to ignore.
At an equally attractive price Irish raider Cowboy Justice looks to be another with a decent bit of each-way value.
Of the remainder the other obvious contenders Thunder Legend and Outgate wont be far away.
ROMAN DRAGON (E/W) 15:40 York
The final of seven live races on ITV this Saturday looks by far the toughest puzzle to decipher. With a total of 19 three year olds set to enter the stalls the majority have some sort of claim on the winners spot.
In such a large field I’m going to have to be cautious and edge my best so I’m picking not one but two to follow in this six furlong contest.
The market leader Ingra Tor should have enough, despite the hike in its mark, to ensure Harry Three finishes behind him once again. Despite the clear and obvious chances of both market principles I feel a race of this nature demands you go on the hunt for some value and as such I’m going for a duo of runners that currently hold double figure prices.
Devaste was less than a length back in 2nd behind the well fancied Showtime Mahomes when last seen over course and distance and then went one better to claim success at Leicester. That victory saw him finish ahead of top weight Gisburn and I’m not convinced that form can be reversed either. He clearly handles the course, has a low weight to carry and looks to be a horse who’s progressed with each run this season.
Unlike the aforementioned Devaste who’s been seen four times this term I’m also siding with a runner who makes her seasonal return after a 285 day stint on the sidelines. With a horse who’s been absent for such a while you take a risk on their fitness but I reckon it’s worth taking, especially considering the form she displayed in her two-year-old career. A former course and distance victor who claimed a close 2nd behind the very impressive Ever Given who went on to compete in group race level and won a listed race at Epsom last week. She also finished 3rd in the Champion Two Year Old Trophy at Ripon when last seen and if she can repeat any of her best form will produce a performance far better than her odds would suggest.
DEVASTE (E/W)
ATOMIC LADY (E/W)
written by Rory Paddock
Comments