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13:15 - Prix Marcel Boussac
Andre Fabre looks to have found another quality filly in Raclette. She’s unbeaten in two starts and was particularly impressive last time. She’s likely to go off at a short price with recent rainfall making the going undoubtedly testing and the fact that she handles it so well is going to make her hard to beat.
Agartha has had a busy season already and the two British contenders Natasha and Oscula look up against it.
Times Square is a speculative selection at a massive price each way. She has performed with credit in her three starts to date and her pedigree suggests she may revel in conditions.
TIMES SQUARE (E/W)
written by Matt Polley
13:50 - Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere
The second Group 1 of the day in Paris sees the two year old's take centre stage where only one of the nine set to go to post is a filly. The remaining eight are colts.
Starting with the odd one out, the sole filly in the line up is the unbeaten Accakaba. Christophe Ferland's filly is yet to taste defeat in four career starts to date. She will relish the ground, is a former Group 2 victor and also has the more than capable Maxime Guyon booked for the ride. She is undoubtedly one of the French's best chances of taking home success and her small weight allowance wont harm her chances however you have to question what level of opposition she's truly beaten having never contested a race with a field size greater than seven.
The other France native with a very strong claim is the Andre Fabre trained Ancient Rome who's aiming to make it four victories in a row. He's done very little wrong to date but as with the aforementioned filly you have to question the level of the horses form having never won a race with more than seven runners. Would be foolish to disregard entirely given his powerful connections but the French contingent look set to play second fiddle to some of the UK and Irish raiders.
The royal blue silks of Godolphin have their eyes on the bigger prize later on the card however it wouldn't come as too much of a shock if their runner Noble Truth were to go close here. A winner at Doncaster last time out was a solid performance after finishing 4th in a Group 3 at York the time before. The form of that York performance has subsequently been boosted with the winner going on to win again since. Could go well at a big price and looks a decent each way option for punters but would need to improve to get close to winning.
The current market leader hails from Hugo Palmer's stable and although Ebro River has had a a tough enough eight race campaign I reckon he's got enough left in the locker to add to his string of victories. A very solid 3rd in the Group 1 National Stakes looks to be some of the best form on offer. The ground was firmer than he'd like that day so the underfoot conditions he's going to be presented with here will be right up his street. He's capable at this level, has the best form in the book and will have conditions to suit. All things point towards a very strong chance of victory.
EBRO RIVER (WIN)
written by Rory Paddock
15:05 - Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe
As one might expect for one of World Racing's premier events, this looks a cracking renewal of the Arc and even the recent gloomy and wet weather reports from France have failed to dampener on things.
Adayar started the season with a couple of fairly disappointing losses and looked all at sea when appearing not to handle Lingfield in the Derby Trial. A big imposing type, overall feeling was that he would probably prove unsuited to the nature of Epsom though he silenced the doubters with an emphatic victory. Sent off as second favourite the time after in the King George, he proved himself to be very high class and comfortably disposed of both Mishriff and Love. Since off due to an infection in his hind leg, he still looks a worthy favourite for this and though his wide draw could have been kinder, he arrives here as clearly the one to beat.
Tarnawa won the Breeders Cup Turf last term and has always been trained with this race in mind ever since. Beaten just three quarters of a length by St Mark's Basilica in the Irish Champion Stakes last time, she ought to strip much fitter today and it is worth bearing in mind the torrid run she got that day (Carried half way across the track by the winner) Christopher Soumillon takes over in the saddle and though she looks something of a questionable favourite according to the ratings, she wouldn't be the first horse to take advantage of smart campaigning from her master handler.
Hurricane Lane lost front shoes and his unbeaten record in the process when third in the Derby, given the circumstances it is difficult to know exactly how or if he was unlucky although he has left no doubts about his ability since. Strong when reeling in a runaway leader en route to landing the Irish Derby was followed up with a devastating performance here in the Grand Prix de Paris and a smooth victory came in the St Leger when upped further in trip last time. Proven on rain softened ground, proven at the trip and beyond, well drawn and clearly thriving, the only real negative with him is whether or not his season has been hard enough.
Snowfall suffered a shock defeat at the hands of the re-opposing Teona last time in what looked a very tactical affair, given Dettori has publicly accepted the blame for that defeat since, she is probably worth forgiving and it would be easy to forget how high class she has looked on this type of ground before. Drawn wide in stall nine, one would imagine Ryan Moore will drop her in and hope there is a decent clip to aim at, whatever, she has something to find with a few of these and is cautiously opposed as such.
Chrono Genesis represents Japan and is the mount of UK champion jockey, Oisin Murphy. With top class form in the book, one suspects a big run is on the cards although there is a niggling doubt about him wanting anything worse than good ground.
Mojo Star could be well drawn and looks to be improving, currently one of the big betting outsiders, he has finished second in two classics and could well run into a place again on ground he clearly likes.
Love probably isn't quite the horse she once was, this ground also looks a negative though Frankie is a good booking and she wouldn't want entirely dismissing. The rest are very hard to fancy and so the vote is handed to the admirably tough, Hurricane Lane, who looks well housed in stall two for James Doyle.
HURRICANE LANE (WIN)
written by Chris Connolly
15:50 - Prix de l'Opera
An unusually competitive Group One here which will be run on very soft ground. Audarya heads the market and James Fanshawe’s who was third in this last year ran a narrow second to Love at Royal Ascot before disappointing at Goodwood. Her last appearance resulted in a second in a Group One at Deauville where she was beaten only in the final stride by Grand Glory who is in opposition again today.
Grand Glory took a step up in class from Group Three level to win the Deauville Group One last time, but this looks a stronger Group One and there should be very little between her and Audarya again today. Grand Glory does have the assistance of Frankie Dettori in the saddle today, at more than twice the price of Audarya she offers some value.
Sibilia Spain has won three of her five races including a listed race last time, she has finished fourth in her two attempts at Group One level albeit not beaten very far on either occasion, I think she will find a couple too good here.
Aiden O’Brien runs Joan Of Arc who claimed a narrow second in the Irish 1,000 Guineas which was followed by a Group One win at Chantilly and a good third in the Group One Nassau Stakes. She was then last of seven in the Prix Vermeille here at Longchamp. I don’t think the ground was soft enough for her that day and the going today should really suit her. She is a definite contender here.
Of the rest, her second in the Nassau gives Roger Varian’s Zeyaadah a chance but she was well beaten in a Group Two last time out.
A short head separated Grand Glory and Audarya last time and there should be very little between them again so it’s a bit puzzling to see Grand Glory a much bigger price especially being ridden by Frankie Dettori. She was very close to being the selection here, but I am going to go with Joan Of Arc to land another international Group One for the master of Group One races. She has some top-class form will like this ground and can add another Group one to the CV of the sadly now departed Gallileo.
JOAN OF ARC (E/W)
written by Steve Marriott
16:25 - Prix de l'Abbaye
The 5 furlong sprint race sees some winners lined up that have already won big prizes along the way this season and it’ll be interesting to see how this goes. With the ground currently very soft and with more rain expected overnight and tomorrow its going to be testing on already raced ground after Saturday.
This won't suit certain runners and I'm not sure this will suit Winter Power although she has won on Soft before. He did way too much work last time out at the Curragh from the front and ultimately finished a tired horse.
Glass Slippers was runner up in this race last year when the ground was heavy, has been very lightly raced this year and that may suit her compared to other horses in the race. Certainly worth a look as the current second favourite.
I feel it‘d be foolish to look past Suesa who has the soft and heavy ground form, unbeaten in France and after winning at Goodwood and finishing 4th on good to firm ground at York last time out should be set for today.
It maybe the case of home comforts for her with the more rain the better. I can see the race staying in France.
At an each way price (Around 9/1 at the time of writing) and possibly a bit of a dark horse for this is Berneuil who won very well last time out at Longchamp and won't mind the ground as it is. A very consistent type who hasn't been out of the top 3 in any of his races this calendar year. Is one who should be in contention and at around a decent price looks each way value.
Perhaps a reverse forecast if you’re feeling bold?
SUESA (WIN)
BERNEUIL (E/W)
written by Luke Tucker
17:00 - Prix de la Foret
Space Blues has won at Longchamp before, albeit over a furlong shorter, and won the Group One Prix Maurice deGheest, in France, last year. He was last seen quickening up nicely to win a Group Two at York. Additionally, connections are in very good form. However, the ground is incredibly soft and Space Blues didn’t perform rather well on his sole start on soft, whereas this is even softer. He looks to be an opposable favourite.
Kinross has always been a consistent horse and has come into his own this season. He wasn’t beaten far in this years stellar renewal of the Prix Maurice de Gheest and before that, hammered Space Blues, on soft ground, at Goodwood. Frankie Dettori’s booking catches the eye but again, this ground is uncharted territory for him.
A constant feature of this preview has how the ground has been getting softer by the hour, so it makes sense to side with a mare whose won over course and distance, in these very conditions. Sagamiyra was last seen easily winning a course and distance Group Three, last time out, and the time before that she went down by a head to Mother Earth in the Group One, Prix Rothschild. The fact that she’s used to conditions, has Group One form and gets weight off a few of her rivals. She’s the home favourite and looks to be the one to beat.
SAGAMIYRA (WIN)
written by Kieran McHugh
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