GLORIOUS GOODWOOD TV TIPS – DAY 2 (WEDNESDAY)
We open todays action with a big runner handicap over a marathon 2m5f trip.
With such a long distance to tackle it’s hard to judge because so many of the runners are yet to attempt such a long race. The only runner that has won over the 2m5f trip before is last years winner Teak. The Ian Williams trained eight year old did well to win this last year and after a string of decent performances this year isn’t one I’d readily dismiss. But now carrying over a stone more in weight than last year and tackling an extra eight opponents I feel the likelihood of it winning is vastly diminished.
Ridgeway Storm is an ultra consistent horse for noted jumps trainer Alan King. The horse rarely puts in a bad performance and has the booking of top jockey Tom Queally to aid its chances today. Looking through its form however and a win over 1m4f as well as two miles doesn’t automatically strike me as a horse that will relish this vast step up in trip. If the ground remains on the soft side then although it could have a place chance it wouldn’t help the horse.
The current market leader is William Of Orange. The four year old top weight has done well to pick up three top three finishes in all three of its seasonal outings. A decent second behind Eshtiaal at York last time out looks like decent form and I don’t think the horse will be perturbed by the bigger distance. However as a betting proposition at current best odds of 4/1 it is far too short for a race of this nature and a horse that is yet to win this year.
Unlike the favourite one horse that has been able to win this year is Air Squadron. The gelding has won all three of its starts this year and is going through some what of a renaissance this year. That being said though all three wins have come over a much shorter trip and the question mark remains wether it will handle todays conditions. Personally I feel the five year old will struggle to go the extra furlongs required to get its head in front.
With cases so daily made for many of the runners the one I’m going for is some what speculative. The bottom weight Needless Shouting comes from a big yard in Mick Channon’s and is ridden by a jockey that has had plenty of success around Goodwood before. The horse needs to make a marked step up on what it has done previously but its front running tactics should suit the course and if it can last home should be right up there when it counts.
Of the remaining runners I think Taws is a very big danger at a decent enough price.
Needless Shouting (E/W)
The second race of the card today is reserved solely for three year olds.
Unlike some original Ballydoyle runners for today Highland Reel actually takes its chance and takes its spot as the favourite for this one and a half mile contest.
The horse was tipped to do very well this year but unfortunately flattered to deceive and hasn’t lived up to last years hype. The horse takes a step down into Group 3 company and despite a disappointing season still deserves its spot as race favourite in this.
The horse, in theory, should win this race but at a price around 2/1 about a horse that is yet to win this year seems too short.
A lively outsider at a price around 9/1 Godolphin’s entry Space Age has the potential to finish in the top three if it can recapture its form prior to a disappointing second placed finish at Ascot. It takes a step up in class but if truth be told the race isn’t much in terms of depth and a place wouldn’t be out of the question.
The selection in this one hails from the yard of David Brown and won mightily impressively at Hamilton last time out. The softer conditions will be of benefit to the horses chances and taking a step up from listed to group company shouldn’t be too much of a difficult task in a relatively weak race like this. The Fergal Lynch ridden runner is almost a certainty for a place and it’s just a question as to wether or not it can topple the O’Brien favourite.
Medrano (E/W if 9/2+)
The showpiece race of day two is The Sussex Stakes and sees French runner Solow aim to make it eight straight wins in a row. The horse won readily at Royal Ascot on its previous start in a race that was equally as competitive as this. Unfortunately the original Ballydoyle antepost favourite Gleneagles doesn’t take up its entry.
The aforementioned Freddie Head trained runner Solow is now clear favourite and rightly so. Although the horses price is now odds on I just can’t see the grey being beaten. With its rivals all relatively close in terms of current form there’s nothing that stands out to me as an each way selection and although you’re not going to make a fortune for backing what I think is the likely winner I still feel it’s price reflects its chances and has to be my selection here.
Of the remainder, if I had to, the one that should sneak into the places is Arod but that is without any great deal of conviction.
We end todays live action with a two year old contest over the minimum trip.
Unfortunately, as seems to be the running theme with todays action, the Aiden O’Brien horse has been withdrawn. It would’ve been great to see a battle between Washington DC and King Of Rooks and if truth be told I’d have favoured the Irish raider however this isn’t going to be the case.
The fact that Washington DC now doesn’t take up the entry makes it somewhat easier to decipher.
I know it may seem some what of an obvious selection I can’t look past the short priced favourite.
King Of Rooks did well when finishing a decent and close third at Royal Ascot. Without being unkind to todays rivals this seems a step down in opposition and should win pretty readily.
The only forceable dangers are Tom Dascombe’s Kachy who has done nothing wrong in its one and only winning start but would need to step up markedly on it’s only piece of form. The other potential thorn in the side to my selection winning is the Godolphin runner Rouleau. The horse has more race course experience than Kachy but will also have to improve markedly and what seems like less impressive form.
King Of Rooks (WIN)
Away from today’s TV Tips we also have our two best bets for Day 3 of The Galway Festival from David Weldon:
15:35 Galway – Lilly The Lioness (E/W)
17:30 Galway – Shanpallas (E/W)
Listen to our full Glorious Goodwood Special Podcast right here: