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TV TIPS (FRIDAY)

13:55 Newmarket
We begin the TV tips for today with a Listed race over a mile. Spangled beat Muffri’Ha by a length here in July and has now won two from four. Both these wins came on good-to-firm ground and over a furlong shorter than todays’ race, yet she still looks likely to head the market and has to be considered as she blew the start last time out yet still managed to get within two lengths of the eventual winner, finishing fourth.
Next in the market comes Lavender Lane who won on debut in May last year, over todays’ trip and on good-to-soft ground, and followed up with three consecutive third placed finishes last summer. Her last two runs have seen her finish no better than midfield but she drops back to a mile for the first time since debut and cannot be ruled out.
Solar Magic has shown great consistency over a mile and has an 83% strike rate for win and placed finishes over this distance, yet has only managed to get her head in front once. She will no doubt prove to be popular with Frankie Dettori back in the saddle but is passed over in favour of a likely improver.
Light And Shade’s bigger odds seem mainly due to the fact she is stepping up in grade and racing against opponents already proven in Listed company, however I feel she represents decent value when you consider she was an impressive three and a half length winner on good-to-soft ground over a mile at Ascot last time out and has a 100% win record of three from three over todays’ trip. There is no doubt that today will be her toughest test yet but she looks to have more to come and could be capable of springing a nice surprise.
Light And Shade (E/W)

14:30 Newmarket
Journey arrives here on the back of an impressive win last time out, defying odds of 33/1 to beat the likes of Suffused and Tazffin and Chain Of Daisies who were all winners of their previous respective races. He is passed over today as he attempts todays’ trip for the first time on ground forecast to be good-to-soft and both career wins so far have come on good-to-firm ground.
At a likely bigger price Namhroodah is of interest having run well in two Listed races earlier this year without quite making the frame. She has only experienced good-to-firm ground so far and attempts twelve furlongs for the first time but with only three career runs is open to further improvement and could prove to be a dark horse here.
Melodious got within a neck of winning a Group 2 over fifteen furlongs earlier this month and has won or placed in 50% of career runs so has to be respected. Her record over todays’ trip is a little less impressive though, just one placed effort in three attempts, so is passed over today.
Preference is for the Sir Michael Stoute trained Asyad who, although finishing just behind the aforementioned Melodious last time out, is proven over todays’ trip with one win and one placed effort from three runs. Furthermore, she has won on both soft and good ground so should be at home whatever the weather.
Asyad (E/W if 9/2+)

15:05 Newmarket
Only seven go to post for the first of todays’ Group 2 races but nevertheless it is an intriguing race to decipher with six of the seven all winning last time out. Great Page is the only one not to win last time out although that was in the Moyglare Stud Stakes Group 1 race at the Curragh and she was a Group 3 winner in her penultimate race. She has three wins and two placed efforts from eight runs this season so has the ability to get in the mix if the number of races already run this season haven’t taken too much out of her.
Hawksmoor has won two from three over todays’ trip including a Group 3 on soft ground at Goodwood last month but disappointed on his only other run here at Newmarket, finishing sixth of seven. I’d be surprised to see her finish that far back today but based on that last HQ run I couldn’t back at current odds of around 2/1.
Thetis is likely to prove popular in the betting now partnered with the returning Ryan Moore. She was a two length winner when last seen at Carlise earlier this month but today represents a big step up in class and she may find a couple too strong.
Promising Run is another stepping up in class but ran well when third in a class two on debut and followed up with a course and distance win next time out. Trainer S Bin Suroor has been in great form recently, having nine winners and four placed from his last twenty runners and has a strike rate approaching 27% for his two-year olds. With question marks over the favourite Promising Run could prove to be the one to beat.
Promising Run (E/W if 9/2+)

15:40 Newmarket
The final race live on TV today sees just four go to post and sees last years’ winner Custom Cut looking to defend his crown. He notched up a five timer last season (four over a mile) and warmed up for todays’ race with a win in a similar race at Leopardstown two weeks ago, beating Top Notch Tonto by almost two lengths. He should arrive here in top form and wouldn’t be inconvenienced by any change in forecast conditions, having won on good, soft and yielding previously.
Decorated Knight has returned from a two month break with two wins and arrives here looking to make it three from three. In such a small field he cannot be discounted as the race could prove to be a tactical affair, although this does represent a big step up in class.
Time Test has a 50% career win rate having won over seven furlongs and twice over ten furlongs from his six career runs. He is also versatile in terms of ground conditions having won on good-to-soft, good and good-to-firm ground. However, the step back in trip is a little surprising and given he disappointed last time out when only fourth in the Juddmonte and I feel is too short to be backing.
Custom Cut (WIN)

About Dean Kilbryde

Racing Pundit at PicksfromthePaddock.co.uk

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