I wouldn’t normally consider a maiden race to be the best starting point for one of our previews but am making an exception today as I feel the David Wachman trained Black Wolf Run has a great chance of getting off the mark here. He has placed in both career runs so far and, although was five lengths back in third when last seen at Gowran Park in June, both the winner and runner up have gone on to win since. Similarly on his debut here at Dundalk in May the runner up has also followed up with a win.
Chenega Bay looks to be the main danger and sets a fairly useful standard with four seconds in a row, including three over todays’ trip. His last race at Limerick in June also produced subsequent winners so he would not be winning out of turn if successful here but with improvement expected and the extra furlong sure to suit I find myself returning to Black Wolf Run.
Black Wolf Run (WIN)
Chatterton is the early market leader in our second race of the day and won his last race here at Dundalk in May. His best career performances have all come at todays’ venue with a win and two placed efforts from five so He has to be respected. Despite this, he is still 6lbs higher than his sole career win and has only managed the one win in seven attempts over a mile so cannot be backed with too much confidence.
Six Silver Lane has a winning strike rate of 36% over a mile here at Dundalk so has to enter calculations, although in the last twelve months he has visited the course on six occasions but has only made the frame once and hasn’t won off a mark this high since 2012.
Preference is for Twistsandturns who is a reasonable each way price considering he is back down to his last winning mark and has a strike rate of 33% over course and distance.
A competitive looking class three handicap is where we finish todays’ previews. Almost half of the field are previous course and distance winners and the selection comes out of this group by way of Don Padeja. He boasts a 50% strike rate for top three finishes over hurdles, should be race fit following recent runs on the flat, and is re-united with jockey Maurice Linehan who has a strike rate approaching 30% for top three finishes when riding for Jonjo O’Neill. At odds approaching double figures he looks too big to pass up on.
Both Jalingo and El Massivo were last time out winners and look the most likely to challenge our selection. Jalingo has won one and finished second four times from five runs since swapping from flat to jumps but is 5lbs higher for his recent win, is upped in class and also steps back from twenty furlongs for todays’ race so isn’t guaranteed to follow up.
El Massivo won here last time out and runs off the same mark again today, although was perhaps flattered by the three length winning margin as the runner up lost all momentum when hitting the last hurdle and is also upped in class today.
Don Padeja (E/W)