PADDOCKS PATENT (THURSDAY)
For my first selection today we head to Carlisle for a hands and heels conditional event over just shy of two miles and four furlongs.
It is hard to get away from the Warren Gretrex runner Miss Estela in this contest who enters handicap company for the first time, on a very lenient mark. A mark of 109 looks extremely lenient on the evidence of her penultimate start. The winner of that race now has a mark of 127 and she was only beaten 3/4 of a length while conceding a pound. With a clear round she could prove hard to beat here.
Also prominent in the betting is Micky Hammonds Rayadour who arrives here on the back of a win. That was a career best and the six year old will need to produce another career best to win here. He does look an improving sort and whether he finds enough improvement to win here remains to be seen as all four hurdle wins have come at class five level.
Of the remainder the complete outsider Cowslip is interesting now that he tackles handicap company for the first time over hurdles. Joseph Palmowski is a conditional who has really caught my eye this season but it is a worry that he is still to ride a winner for this trainer from twelve rides.
MISS ESTELA (WIN)
For my second selection today we head over to Ireland for a maiden hurdle run over just shy of two miles and four furlongs.
At the head of the market is the Willie Burke trained Coolbane West who is still trying to break his duck over hurdles after four starts. A current mark of 116 looks about right on the evidence of his penultimate start, but I think he ran a few pounds below that last time out. If he can improve on his current mark, he should be capable of taking this but that’s a big if.
The one that I like in this is Michael Winters seven year old mare Perfect Woman, who has played the bridesmaid on her last two starts. A current mark of 107 looks lenient enough as she finished in close proximity to an above average sort of Willie Mullins last time out, with a 104 rated performer thirty five lengths back in third that day. She also receives a seven pounds mares allowance here and Patrick Corbett takes off another valuable five pounds. This could see her the best treated runner in the lineup and she may be able to get that elusive first win over hurdles.
On paper not a whole lot of the remainder have shown a great deal so far although the Eddie O Grady trained Itsnothingpersonal is probably better than he showed last time out, but was a fairly cheap purchase. Kilford can not be totally ruled out either as he showed some decent point to point form but has yet to show the same under rules.
PERFECT WOMAN (WIN)
For my final selection today we stay in Ireland for a beginners chase over two miles two furlongs and 50yds.
This does not look a great race and it is hard to get away from the Paul Nolan trained favourite Horse No Name in this contest. The five year old has shown ok form since running in Ireland but one run in France where narrowly beaten by the useful Katgary as a three year old reads well now. While he did spend a small bit of time off the track, he did prove his well being with a good second over hurdles last time out. If able to transfer that hurdles form to the larger obstacles he looks the one to beat here.
The Ian Ferguson eight year old Leighinmohr looks the biggest danger to the selection and while he has yet to land a blow, some of the company he has kept over fences has been fairly strong. Going by his sole win over hurdles a mark of 115+ should be within his scope but the fact he has to concede eight pounds to the selection could be enough to stop him.
The remainder could be fighting it out for third spot here unless they can improve a good bit on what they have shown so far.
HORSE NO NAME (WIN)