We kick off todays action with a low grade Class 6 handicap over ten furlongs.
The current race favourite is the youngest horse in the race as top weight Ninety Minutes heads the market. Two consecutive third placed finishes gives this horse a great chance but this is the first time the horse has tackled Chelmsford’s unique course. Despite Chelmsford not being open for long it is already gaining a noticeable bias for front running horses with very few winning from off the pace. With the come from behind tactics this horse tends to adopt I have to look elsewhere.
Another horse that’s challenging for favouritism is the Shelley Brikett ridden eight year old Sail Home. A course and distance win last time out speaks volumes and with only a two pound rise it doesn’t seem all that steep. That being said however I actually prefer the horse that finished second that day.
Noted all-weather jockey Luke Morris sticks with Perseverent Pete who ran well to finish second last time out. Unlike some of its rivals it has been lightly raced this year and may be fresher than most with much more to come.
Perseverent Pete (WIN)
We switch from the all-weather flat to the turf and jumps at Wincanton. The third race on the card may only have five runners but when one of those five runners is trained by Paul Nicholls you have to take note.
The selection Vesperal Dream may have top weight but with a course and distance win to its name the six year old has every chance. It looked a smart chaser last time out and despite most of his rivals having a chance today I just can’t see any of them taking this ones crown.
Of the remainder, if push came to shove, I could see Robert Walford’s Sun Wild Life being the closest to troubling the favourite.
Vesperal Dream (WIN)
We end todays picks as we started them with a handicap from Chelmsford.
With the way the betting seems to be working out it seems to be just a two horse race with joint favourites Sonnetation and Queen Aggie both heading the market.
The aforementioned Queen Aggie seems to be the epitome of the proverbial bridesmaid with six top three starts since its last win. The horses lack of willingness to put its head in front in recent times perturbs me and for that reason I’m siding with the other current favourite.
Sonnetation did well to win last time and likes to be up near the pace, which will be ideal for todays course. The horse does take a six pound rise for its success so it is not a forgone conclusion but todays competition looks slightly below par and the horse should be able to find itself in the winners enclosure for the second time in a row.
Lady Lydia does have the eye-catching booking of George Baker in the saddle and it may be worth noting if money comes for the horse but unless it shows marked improvement should still find the top weight too good.
by Rory Paddock
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