PADDOCKS PATENT (TUESDAY) – In Association With The Value Rater
Luduamf arrives here as early favourite and given that he’s the only one of the seven-strong field with a career win to his name he looks to have a great chance of notching another win for Richard Hannon. His win came over a furlong shorter than todays’ trip but he placed second to the highly progressive Montataire on first attempt over seven furlongs and was over two lengths clear of third. After only three career runs he is open to further improvement and has the strongest form on offer so is the selection here.
Bayston Hill has had four career runs and placed second on all four occasions. He hasn’t been beaten by far but similarly has had every chance to get his nose in front so may have to settle for minor honours again today.
The biggest danger therefore looks to be Notalot who has placed twice from four career runs and although only mid-division at Goodwood last time out he was still only just over three lengths away from the winner. Today sees his first attempt at seven furlongs but if staying the extra furlong could prove the most likely to challenge at the business end.
Our first visit to Nottingham this evening sees us take in a Class 5 handicap over fourteen furlongs. Early favourite Atalan is the only previous course and distance winner in the field having emerged victorious when last seen here in May and is only 3lbs higher for this race. He is again partnered with jockey Jim Crowley who was in the saddle for his last two wins and has a 30% winning strike rate in the last twelve months riding at Nottingham. Furthermore Hughie Morrison has been in decent form in recent weeks and has a great record here at Nottingham so his four year old looks to have a great chance of a win tonight.
In truth none of the opposition inspire much confidence. Lineman and Ivanhoe have both attempted todays’ distance on numerous occasions without recording victory while Bertie Moon has never won over more than ten furlongs on the flat, whereas Denham Sound and Fix Up Look Sharp have so far shown little to suggest a first career win is on the cards.
We stay at Nottingham for our final selection of the evening, in the hope that joint bottom weight Thesme can improve on her four consecutive placed efforts with a win tonight. She has been racing in some tough looking Class 2’s recently, culminating with an excellent second at Goodwood last month, just a half length behind Boom The Groom. Given that tonights’ race is a Class 3 and most of her rivals arrive here struggling for form she looks to be a good bet to add to her two previous career wins over the minimum trip.
Early favourite Strath Burn has competed at the highest level but disappointed on his last run of 2015, hasn’t really fired on all cylinders in three runs this year (despite a change of yard) and thus far his best performances have come over six furlongs. On his best form he’d be in with a great chance but i’d prefer to see some improvement from him before considering investing in a win bet.
Desert Law won this race last year and is 3lbs lower for this years’ renewal, however has only managed one placed effort from seven subsequent runs so the biggest danger looks to be Maljaa who, although was 2 ½ lengths behind Thesme at Goodwood in July he re-opposes on slightly better terms and has made the frame in 75% of all career runs over five furlongs.