PADDOCKS PATENT (TUESDAY)
Proud Gamble is a three time winner over course and distance and has won three of his last five, beating the re-opposing Formidableopponent by a neck the last time they met. He has a further 6lbs to carry today, taking him to a career high mark, however has looked to be progressing well and another big run looks on the cards.
Formidableopponent notched up a five-timer across September and October and has placed three times from four runs since. He is up 6lbs from the last time he met Proud Gamble but is effectively better off at the weights as Proud Gamble has gone up 12lbs since so needs to be considered, although is yet to win in six attempts at the course and has never won over a trip this far.
Rev Up Ruby is yet to get competitive over fences but has made the frame in 50% of all runs over todays’ trip and is a course and distance winner over hurdles so cannot be written off, while Golden Investment is also proven over the trip having won in a point-to-point and hails from a yard with a good level stakes profit record at the course so is another with an each-way shout.
Proud Gamble (WIN)
Petite Power has shown very little in all five runs over 2016 but has since joined Fergal O’Brien and has already been well supported in the early markets, suggesting that a big run could be on the cards. Having said this, there looks to be no value in the prices considering that he’s been beaten a total of 109 lengths in three attempts over a similar trip so he won’t be carrying any of my money.
Kerry Lee’s Magic Mustard won over course and distance last time out and as such brings the best recent form to the race. He responded well for pressure and was in command at the finish despite the official winning distance being less than a length but could be vulnerable as he has a 6lbs rise to contend with today and was pushed along from a long way out.
At the prices i’m opting for Sweetlittlekitty who hasn’t shown too much over shorter distances but showed true battling qualities to win over todays’ trip at Worcester in the summer and has also won over three miles in a point-to-point earlier in her career. Rebecca Curtis has had a few winners over the last couple of weeks and has a 75% place strike rate for her runners over hurdles here at Bangor in the last three years and with stamina assured her runner looks capable of a placed finish at the very least.
Sweetlittlekitty (E/W if 9/2+)
Just four runners are scheduled to go to post here yet it looks the most competitive and exciting race of the day, with all four in with reasonable chances. The early favourite is Mixboy who has won two from two since switching to fences, jumping soundly and winning both in convincing fashion. Racing for a trainer and jockey combination with a 40% winning strike rate over the last twelve months, he looks likely to go off in front and could prove tough to catch.
Thankyou Very Much has also won his last two over fences, pulling away nicely in the closing stages on both occasions to win with relative ease. Twice a winner at the track and receiving weight from all his rivals he isn’t passed over lightly.
Fair Loch returned from a seven month break to record an impressive victory at Ayr in October, winning by eleven lengths without coming off the bridle. The jockey that day was Brian Hughes, who rides Thankyou Very Much today, so Henry Brooke is booked to ride but isn’t necessarily a bad thing as he has a 27% winning strike rate over the last twelve months when riding for Brian Ellison, although a 10lbs rise will likely make things a little tougher.
Oliver’s Gold hasn’t won since notching a double in October 2015 but produced his best effort since when only beaten a neck on soft ground at Doncaster in November when last seen. Previous career victories have come on better ground so the forecast conditions should suit and despite being the outsider of the four is still only around 5/1 which shows just how competitive a race this is.