PADDOCKS PATENT (TUESDAY)
Maoi Chinn Tire has won four from five here at Nottingham including one over course and distance and has an excellent over record over todays trip with six wins and three placed from twenty. He arrives here in top form having won his last two, one at end of last season and then on re-appearance here last month and with this race producing a subsequent winner a 4lbs rise looks fair and most importantly only takes him to a mark that he has won off earlier in his career.
Hallstatt is another course specialist having won five times from twelve runs here, most recently earlier this month when winning a three runner affair over fourteen furlongs. He is passed over today as, although he does have a course and distance win to his name his overall record over a two mile trip isn’t as impressive with just two wins from eighteen.
Danglydontask won on his only other visit here, albeit over fourteen furlongs, and was showing a good level of consistency prior to finishing last of nine at Pontefract last month. He would need a big run to bounce back but previous form puts him in with a chance of making the frame.
Maoi Chinn Tire (E/W if 9/2+)
Berkeley Vale has posted two wins and a close second from three attempts over course and distance and arrives here with just a 2lbs rise for a recent win at Nottingham. Although taking a slight step up in class the majority of his opponents rated higher than him arrive here either out of form or unable to back up promising runs when last seen, so he has to have a great chance of a top three finish at the very least.
It would be dangerous to dismiss Skidby Mill who has an overall career strike rate approaching 60% for making the frame over course and distance, winning six and placing seven times from twenty two attempts. He was only a neck away from a win when last running off todays’ mark but has proved a shade disappointing in his last two runs off just 1lbs higher and with the stable in poor recent form he may be best watched today.
Of the remainder, Als Memory is effectively below his last winning mark if taking in to consideration his jockey’s claim although has been competing in lower grades than here, while Freewheel arrives on the back of a win last time out but is up 4lbs and is yet to win in five attempts on an all-weather surface.
Berkeley Vale (E/W if 9/2+)
In all honesty this isn’t a race I would usually get too involved in but I make an exception today as I thought the Ben Haslam trained Bourbonisto ran a great race when a 25/1 second at Doncaster on Saturday, finishing very strongly once he got the hang of things. With that experience under his belt and the extra few yards to cover today he could prove tough to beat, especially when considering the only other flat runner sent here over the last five years from this stable was a winner.
Of the few that have previous racecourse experience Chevalier Du Lac looks the obvious danger having finished a reasonable second on debut. He was beaten by over four lengths but the winner has since gone on to finish fourth in a listed contest at York last week so has to be considered with further progress likely.
Jollydee has improved in each run so far, posting a fourth followed by a third last time out. I feel he will need to improve again to get the better of the afore-mentioned two but in a race of this nature he cannot be ruled out.