PADDOCKS PATENT (THURSDAY)
The opening punt of the day sees us take on a novices hurdle where we have an odds on favourite in the form of top weight Younevercall. The horse has two wins from four starts and clearly sets the standard. Those victories were on good ground and it’s only start on a softer surface resulted in a fall. The horse obviously has decent ability but at an odds on price, in a race of this nature I have to take it on.
The nearest challenger, if the betting is anything to go off, is the Ian Popham ridden Muthabir. A decent looking second placed finish saw the horse go closer than it did when racing at Doncaster the time before and unlike the favourite shows it isn’t too pit off by a bit of cut in the ground, of the two my preference would probably be for the favourite but both don’t represent much value as far as the market is concerned.
The horse I’m going with has the good fortune of “Champion Jockey In Waiting” Richard Johnson up top. A second on its only start saw the horse do well at 100/1 here before. A horse that handles Doncaster is a massive plus with this tracks very niche test often finding our many horses. The horse that Deadly Approach finished behind that day has subsequently gone on to win on its next two starts and looks a classier sort. A current price of 8/1 looks generous and a decent each-way bet looks the obvious route to go here.
Deadly Approach (E/W)
Sticking in Yorkshire where we go from a decent each-way punt to a favourite worth backing.
As eluded to before a horse with course form is definitely worth following when it comes to Doncaster and Pine Creek has a 50% strike rate at this venue. Trainer John Ferguson has returned to a bit of form and this experienced eight year old showed it still retains the ability of its earlier successes with two second placed finishes previously. Being beaten by Volnay De Thaix last time out is far from a disgrace and it certainly doesn’t seem to be up against any horses of that nature here and is likely to go one better and pick up the win.
Both Nexius and Blue Fashion have to be feared considering the connections they represent as both Nicholls and Henderson will be starting to fire in the build up to Cheltenham next month. Blue Fashion hasn’t shown much recently but wether or not this could be seen as a bit of a “sleeper” could very well be the case but none the less I’m sticking with the current favourite.
Pine Creek (WIN)
A long wait until our final pick of the day sees us take in the final race on the evening card from Chelmsford. A three year old contest looks set to potentially be a two horse race where You’re A Goat and Divine Touch look to be vying it out for favouritism. Divine Touch put in a much better effort last time out when finishing second at Southwell last time out. It was a marked improvement on what it had shown in three of its two year old starts but Southwell is quite a specialist track and wether or not that form can be transferred over to this course is up for debate.
You’re A Goat did well when also finishing second last time out but over course and distance. That form looks better than the form shown by the bottom weight and despite the stone in weight difference between the two I’d prefer to be on the Adam Kirby ridden runner. All this being said however, with eight runners set to go to post I’m actually going for a much bigger priced runner.
Pat Cosgrove tends to be pretty selective with his rides at this time of the year as can be seen by the fact he has ridden just twice in the past two weeks but has picked up wins on both occasions. He saddles just the one earlier on the card but opts to stick around for 22/1 shot Dilly Daydream. The horse put in an ok performance when finishing sixth last time out here when running over an inadequate mile. The step up to ten furlongs should definitely help and the horse should definitely strip fitter for that return after three months off. The horse looked to be given an easy race two weeks ago and trainer Giles Bravery has a 50% strike rate in the past two weeks. A return to handicapping will definitely help, as will the drop of four pounds. An almightily bountiful price as it stands at 22/1 looks too good to turn down.
Dilly Daydream (E/W)