PADDOCKS PATENT (THURSDAY)
We start the day with a class four six furlong contest. Aprovado is the current market leader and comes with good claims after two wins from four this season. He comes from a yard in form in Michael Dods, his last win came four days ago. He won comfortably last time and is open to more improvement. Up in class however and not well in with a penalty is vulnerable and I want to take him on. Foolaad is unexposed with only three runs and the exceed and excel gelding makes his belated handicap début. Its hard to know how he is treated and is opposed on that basis.
Patrick won with plenty in hand last time out. He was still green and idled when winning by two and a half lengths. Still open to improvement with a handy weight for age allowance. He should go very well and is taken to win here.
Off the remainder See The Storm is on a handy mark and with Dettori booked must have some chance.
Seven furlong contest with fourteen runners up next from the north east track. Sovereign Bounty is the favourite and must have a good chance. Only four pounds higher than last time when he just got up. His form has been well advertised with the second to Go Dan Go. Still unexposed, I just think he will need slightly further at this stage of his career. Also a golden rule of mine is favourites never win over this distance. There are plenty of first time handicappers here and Richard Fahey saddles two of the four. Both have shown some promise in maidens and can step forward on them runs.
With a high draw a preference over course and distance, The Carbonator, Ignore his last run which was too bad to be true (however form has worked out). His last run behind an inform Bobby Jean was strong for this grade. Plenty of winners have come out from in behind. The better ground will be in his favour and is drawn on the right side. While still a maiden he has run consistently and should be winning soon.
The Carbonator (E/W)
On the book, this is wide open, however for me I can only see one winner, Dancing Noretta. The Big Bad Bob filly is unexposed and the step up to this trip will really suit and her run over mile and a half was full of promise. Running from out of the clouds to finish a close second. The form off that run is really promising on handicap début, off a two pound higher mark should be competitive getting weight from majority of the field.
Plenty of dangers in a wide open contest. Coach Bombay, Balkinstown, Aisan Wing and Silver Pockets must have chances while the biggest danger could be Hurricane Sky. Charles O’Brien is in the winners and this horse can improve again, however he hasn’t won since 2013 and is opposed.
Jessie Harriginton horse Dancing Noretta is likely to be popular tomorrow and it wasn’t a discreet eye catching run but she should have enough to win.
Dancing Noretta (WIN)