PADDOCKS PATENT (MONDAY)
Moonlight Sonata looks likely to head the market and will be looking to improve again after two placed finishes in September. She was just caught on the line in her last race over a mile but was over two lengths clear of Spirited Acclaim (who re-opposes today) in third and if she handles the softer surface today she could prove tough to beat.
Evening Rain has finished second in each of her last three runs and with two of these coming on good to soft ground she is likely to be in the mix again. However, in all three races she has struggled to catch the winner and may well find at least one too good again today.
Of the remainder, Sweet Dream showed some ability when finishing second on her first run over todays’ race distance but then disappointed next time out so is probably best watched today.
Moonlight Sonata (WIN)
A competitive looking class four handicap is where we see our second selection run, where a case can be made for a handful of the runners. Lady Brigid was an impressive three length course and distance winner last week but has been hit with a 6lb penalty for that victory which could make her vulnerable today.
Abi Scarlett is an interesting entry considering she has only run twice on turf and finished last on both attempts in 2012. Nevertheless she arrives here in good form and has won six out of twelve over todays’ distance on the all-weather and could be a threat if taking to the ground today.
Crazy Chic and Half A Billion are others who should be respected, with Crazy Chic winning on his debut by over two lengths and Half A Billion missing out by a nose on heavy ground last time out. However, preference is for likely favourite Polski Max. The selection hasn’t won for over twelve months but has been competing in higher grades and ran a cracker when fourth of twenty last time out, suggesting that a return to form could be just around the corner. If he performs to the same level today then he is the one to beat.
Polski Max (WIN)
Our final selection for today comes in this class five handicap, where ten runners are scheduled to run. Mister Mayday is the early favourite and is proven on both soft and heavy ground, but has a 6lb penalty to carry after a win last week and I feel there is better value elsewhere.
Pendo steps up to ten furlongs after a recent win and two placed efforts over a mile, running on well to suggest the extra distance would suit. However, with no form on soft/heavy ground he is passed over in favour of Strait Run.
Strait Run won a decent looking maiden on soft ground twelve months ago but has been well beaten in class three and four handicaps since. All these subsequent races have been on good or good-to-firm ground and now running off his lowest ever handicap mark, eased in grade and back on softer ground, I am hopeful that he can return to winning ways.
Strait Run (E/W)
by Dean Kilbryde