PADDOCKS PATENT (MONDAY) – In Association With The Value Rater
My first selection today is a colt who has yet to fulfil his considerable potential. Nisser shaped with an abundance of promise last year, comfortably winning his final start of 2015 at Windsor – prompting talk of some fancy future entries by the Richard Hannon team. However, his fortunes have taken a turn for the worse in 2016. A couple of hard luck stories and a tame capitulation when upped in trip to 7f have forced connections into a rethink.
This powerful looking colt has now swapped one premier yard for another, linking up with sprint specialist Robert Cowell. If anyone can unlock the potential of a sprinter it is Cowell and I believe this change of scenery along with a drop down in trip to 6f on slower ground could be the making of Nisser. A rating of 83 still seems lenient and current odds of 5/1 seem more than fair.
Shufoog attempts to regain the winning thread on her fifth career start here. A winning debutant at Lingfield last year, the filly’s subsequent efforts have been steady if unspectacular. She has had to endure her fair share of trouble in-running and it’s likely we have not seen the best of William Haggas’ charge yet. Her last run at York gave the strong suggestion she is a winner waiting to happen – finishing second only to Cote D’Azur, who has since scored twice and is now rated 92.
A rating of 72 looks very exploitable in a race were over half the field have taken on an exposed look. With Paul Hanagan back in the saddle and Haggas’ record at the course excellent, everything seems in place for a big run. At odds of 2/1 I feel Shufoog has a solid chance of claiming the £3k pot before moving onto better things.
A very competitive 6f handicap see’s one unexposed gelding in Ebony n Ivory, tackle a field of highly tried 3 year olds. It’s quite easy to make a compelling case for Ebony n Ivory – he has performed with credit on his only two starts – winning on debut in the process. It could well be that this handicap acts as a mere stepping stone for better things, but at current odds of 11/4 I don’t think there is a great deal of value to be had and one of the more experienced brigade may upset the applecart.
Penny Pot Lane is a 3yo ‘veteran’ of 13 starts with only one win . However, that win was at Ripon and trainer Richard Whittaker has a good record here. The filly went closest to doubling her career tally with a 1 length 3rd at Carlisle last week and it is interesting that connections are keen to turn her back out again so quickly. Her rating remains unchanged at 64 and with capable 5lb claimer Nathan Evans in the saddle she is weighted to go close. Current odds of 7/1 seem reasonable and an each way play is advised.
Penny Pot Lane (E/W)