PADDOCKS PATENT (MONDAY)
Danzoe has a 50% win rate over course and distance and finished in the top three his latest three runs on an all-weather surface, winning one. The partnership with jockey Eoin Walsh has produced three wins and three placed efforts from ten to give a 60% hit rate of win or placed finishes. He beat the re-opposing Your Gifted by three lengths when they last met and should be able to confirm that form here today.
Your Gifted is the only runner arriving on the back of a win having won here last time out but that was her first in sixteen attempts over five furlongs and has so far failed to follow up on any previous career victories.
Of the remainder, Pearl Noir is one from one over track and trip but has only won twice from sixteen over five furlongs and Give Us A Belle has a 37% win rate over course and distance but was beaten by Pearl Noir last time out.
Danzoe (E/W if 5/1+)
Early market leader Polly Peachum is the obvious starting point having won three of her last four and boasting a 50% win rate over hurdles. She keeps the partnership with Barry Geraghty intact and beat the re-opposing L’Unique by five lengths the last time they met but has never raced on heavy ground before. At odds likely to be around evens or worse she represents little value and therefore preference is for Clara Mc Cloud.
Clara Mc Cloud has only finished outside the places in three of her thirteen career runs and was a three length winner on heavy ground at Clonmel earlier this month. She finished ahead of Grandads Horse when third at Cheltenham on her penultimate run last month and this form holds up well as Grandads Horse was an impressive winner at Ascot recently.
Carole’s Spirit has won three from four over jumps so could also enter calculations, although as yet is unproven over todays’ trip.
Clara Mc Cloud (E/W if 5/1+)
Alba Verde is the forecast early favourite for this race and arrives having won her last three in impressive fashion. She hadn’t shown much in her first four runs but the step up in trip brought about a vast improvement and although todays’ race will be tougher she could hardly be in better form and could prove too strong for her rivals here.
Rutherglen is second-favourite and looks to be the obvious danger. A winner on turf, over jumps and on his only previous run on an all-weather surface he commands respect. He was last seen finishing a very credible fifth in the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham in March and will surely win races this season but is passed over today as he may just need the run after an eight month break.
At a likely bigger price Jacobs Son cannot be discounted. Although he has attempted todays’ trip twice without success, he has an incredible record of finishing 75% of his races on an all-weather surface inside the top three.
Alba Verde (WIN)