PADDOCKS PATENT (MONDAY)
We begin our day at Southwell and look to take on the early favourite with our selection Take The Crown. He was beaten a neck in to second by Henri De Boistron at Leicester last month but with the third that day going on to win since he looks to have more to give stepped up in trip today.
The early favourite is Money For Nothing who has shown a marked improvement in his last three runs but, despite this has now returned a losing favourite on each occasion, finishing second each time. It is worth noting that these three runs were all on soft ground and when racing on a firmer surface he has struggled to make any impression and so is passed over today.
Of the remainder, Billy Cuckoo and Alpancho are both proven over todays’ trip but both arrive here with a point to prove after poor runs last time out and are probably best watched on this occasion.
Take The Crown (WIN)
Satchville Flyer arrives here as firm favourite and is definitely the form pick of the field, with two wins and a close second from his last three runs. Both of the wins came over six furlongs here at Chelmsford so he has proven form on this surface and looks to have enough speed to be able to cope over the shorter trip today.
Billy Red arrives on the back of a win last time out but hasn’t won off his current mark for two years and rarely follows up on a win so the biggest danger to the favourite looks to be Sir Geoffrey.
Sir Geoffrey ran a respectable third at Southwell earlier this month and has a career strike rate of 46% for top three finishes on an all-weather surface. All fourteen of his wins have come over the minimum trip and with Luke Morris again doing the steering he is feared most.
Satchville Flyer (WIN)
Early Favourite Dragoon Guard had a win and a close second to his name when racing over nine furlongs at Wolves at the back end of 2013 but was only seen once in 2014 where he finished a respectable third at Leicester in April. He looks to have a fair bit of potential but has now been off the racecourse for almost twelve months and may just need the run here.
India’s Song is the only one in this field who is proven over course and distance and has a 50% win rate over ten furlongs. She seems to have stuck up a good relationship with jockey Milly Naseb (two wins and a third from three rides) and although is 2lbs higher for her half-length third last time out the experience of running and winning here before could prove invaluable.
The Lock Master hasn’t raced over todays’ trip for almost two years but is of interest as he notched up a hat-trick of wins this time last year and is now 10lbs lower than the last of these wins. Furthermore, three of his last four races have produced subsequent winners so he looks to have been running better than bare form figures suggest.
India’s Song (WIN)