PADDOCKS PATENT (MONDAY)
Only five runners are scheduled to go to post and our first selection today is likely to go off at a pretty short price but is hard to oppose. A recent winner on soft ground, he was pulling away in the closing stages so the extra furlong today should pose no problems. Furthermore, the runner-up of this last race has gone on to win since so the form holds up well.
Dark Kingdom looks to be the biggest danger to the selection, having won on his only career run so far. However this was on good ground over seven furlongs so both ground and distance are unknowns and for that reason cannot be backed with any conviction.
Spindle is the only other runner to have a win to her name but this was on the all-weather. She has placed on heavy ground before, ahead of the re-opposing Pink Ribbon, but looked well held in third and doesn’t look to have the same scope as the selection.
Perfect Muse has been in great form recently, winning three from her last four. She has managed a couple of placed efforts on soft ground but has done all her winning on good ground and may struggle today having an extra 6lbs to carry.
Bondi Beach Boy is in great form at the moment and boasts an impressive 42% win rate over five furlongs. He has nine career wins to his name but, as with the aforementioned Perfect Muse, he has shown to be much more effective on better ground.
Meadway and Adams Ale battled it out to finish within a nose of each other at Ripon last month and are still evenly matched today but preference is for Mutafaakir.
I have picked Mutafaakir as he was an impressive winner at Nottingham last month and returned there last week to run a credible second on similar ground to what is forecast today. He has finished in the top three in 45% of his career races on turf and should be thereabouts again today.
Docs Legacy is forecast as the early favourite and gave his best performance of the season when second at Redcar earlier in the month. However, he still looked well held by the winner and has been raised 1lb for his trouble. He has raced off this mark twice recently without success so is passed over today.
Lord Franklin is looking for a hat-trick of wins but is stepping in trip up to do so and is carrying and extra 6lbs. He has only managed one win from seven over today’s race distance and that was on good ground, so is likely to find today much tougher.
Bureau has only managed two wins from eleven attempts over today’s trip but one of these came here at Pontefract and the other was on soft ground at Ripon. Today she is down in class, running off the same mark as when successful at Ripon and has ground conditions to suit, so should be able to get the better of her rivals today.