PADDOCKS PATENT (FRIDAY)
Our First selection runs in the opening race at Newbury. A maiden contest for two year olds ran over six and a half furlongs.
With Approval lines up here on the back of a reasonable run on Tapeta. The switch to turf shouldn’t be an issue and the dams form on soft leads me to believe the ground will not be an issue. The assistance of George Baker replacing 7lb claimer Tyler Saunders is a big positive and the Charles Hills colt should be in the mix at the business end.
The one they all have to beat is the Richard Hannon trained King to Be. Second behind the Sir Michael Stoute trained Convoy on debut is form that has yet to be tested despite the winner doing it impressively.King to Be should act on the ground but looks to have the most to prove here and at predicted short odds the value surely will be found elsewhere.
My pick here is the Barry Hills newcomer Mugharred. Speedily bred he looks appealing on paper and Dane O’Neill’s record on the owner’s two year olds in recent years is a healthy 21%.
The yards two year olds have contested 47 races this season, 53% of those runners have recorded a top three finish. If handling the ground here he should be able to give the favourite something to think about over what looks a suitable trip.
We keep with the juveniles for our second selection and head up to Doncaster for their 13:50. A maiden event ran over a mile.
Yarrow looks the likely favourite on the form of her previous start. The Sea The Stars Filly was slowly away on debut and despite having to be urged along to get into contention finished very strongly, only to be beaten into second place by a diminishing one and a quarter lengths. A brighter start here will surely see her battling out a finish here but maybe the lack of Ryan Moore’s assistance will be what costs the Sir Michael Stoute filly victory on her second attempt.
Star Of Seville looked the winner in running when making her debut over a slightly shorter trip. Being asked to go and win her race a furlong from home she failed to pick up when required. The extra furlong here should give her time to hit her stride. That said John Gosden’s filly looks beatable.
My selection here will be the Hugo Palmer Trained newcomer Bella Nostalgia. Hugo Palmer is another trainer who is showing a great ability to place his two year old runners this season with 53% of his juveniles finishing in the first three. Over recent seasons the yard has saddled two winners from just five runners when sending his two year olds here to Doncaster and Danny Tudhope is a jockey who is hitting the headlines this season.His record for this trainer reads very well, all four rides have come this year – on juveniles; he has won on two of those starts, and on the other two occasions he made the frame. Costing 160’000 Euros as a foal this Ravens Pass filly will certainly be one to watch out for.
Bella Nostalgia (E/W)
Our final selection runs in Doncaster’s 14:55, A seven furlong maiden.
For me the race looks to be between two of the newcomers. Richard Hannon’s Thahab looks to have everything going for him. Frankie Dettori takes the ride which gives the impression he is the better of the Al Shaqab duo.
Costing a cool £1 million euros as a yearling he certainly will have plenty of supporters and the price will likely reflect that. An each way finish is probably the minimum that connections will be happy with, but with the price tag and Derby entry comes the likelihood that he will be ridden with the future in mind and for that reason he will be best watched here.
My pick is the Godolphin debutant True Respect. Another who as a yearling wasn’t cheap costing 280’000 guineas,. Godolphin will be looking to further boost an excellent course record. Trainer Saeed bin Suroor has a 30% strike rate with two year old runners at the track and this years has only sent one juvenile runner here. Jockey Frederik Tylicki has a brilliant record this year when riding for these in these colours. For trainer Saeed bin Suroor he has ridden 11 winners from just 31 starts (35%).
Of the rest the two Clive Cox runners could be of interest. With jockey bookings indicating Ice Lord as the chief contender, any market support would be of note.
True Respect (E/W)