LONGCHAMP DAY 1 (SATURDAY)
The first of four Group races looks set to be a three horse race. The best of the UK runners seems to be Jane Chapple-Hyam’s The Twisler. Two competitive victories last time out gives this one a decent chance but is more than likely to need very heavy going which it wont have today.
The other two main protagonists are Godolphins Big Blue and course and distance winner Vazirabad. They met in their previous outing and Vazirabad won pretty well. The likelihood that the form of that race is going to be reversed looks slim and as such the favourite looks the very likely winner.
As with the previous race it seems that the same owners are set to have the favourite in this race as well. The red hot market leader Candarliya is odds on to win this and after a decent second placed finish behind superstar filly Treve it is by far the best form on offer. However the horse was utterly demolished that day and I couldn’t be so overly confident about a horse that has such a short price.
John Gosden sends Martlet over to try and raid this contest and with a convincing win at York last time out it seems to have the scope to compete at this level. If push came to shove I would actually side with this runner over the favourite but I feel both horses prices are far too short.
I’m going to opt for an outsider here and look to a horse that was very close to winning a listed race last time out. Marypop is ridden by top jockey Mickael Barzalona and should improve for a step up in trip. It may not be the classiest entry but may have enough to finish in the top three.
This race sees racing superstar Cirrus Des Aigles look to claim one of numerous group race successes however it looks to be up against it with Godolphin’s entry French Navy. The Charlie Appleby trained runner has only finished outside of the top three once in its last eleven races. With only one race this season it is likely to be fresher that its competitors and should take all the beating.
Frecnch Navy (WIN)
The final Group 2 event of the day sees former 1,000 Guineas winner Miss France head the market at around 13/8.
An interesting opponent to Miss France is John Gosden’s Johnny Barnes who placed in a Group 1 race as a two year old but hasn’t shown that form since. A decent win in its last race however shows it still retains a decent level of ability however with such a small field it is likely to find a couple too good and gaining a place spot looks unlikely.
The biggest threat to the favourite looks to be Impassable who has won three of its four races this year but I worry wether or not it has seen its best races already this year and unlike the favourite may not have any improvement left this season.
I am siding with the Andre Fabre horse who can improve markedly on its only run this year. A 1,000 Guineas win looks the much better form and should win today.
Miss France (WIN)