BREEDERS CUP WEEKEND SPECIAL
Friday 31st October
21:25 Juvenile Turf
At first glance Hootenanny looks a worthy favourite. He could hardly have been more impressive over five furlongs at Ascot but has never raced competitively over a mile. Taking this into account I will look elsewhere.
Commemorative has a 100% record over a mile so warrants respect and arrives here looking to complete his hat-trick. With the European turf form generally better than the US equivalent a price of around 10/1 looks generous for an in-form horse who is proven over trip.
22:05 Dirt Mile
Goldencents sets the standard here, having won this race last year. He has already beat a few of todays’ opposition and is the one to beat, although it is worth noting that no favourite has won this race from seven attempts.
Fed Biz beat Goldencents in August 2013 although the positions were reversed when they met again in August 2014. In his last race he finished second to Shared Belief who is unbeaten in seven and is currently favourite for the Classic, so the form holds up well.
Fed Biz (E/W)
22:50 Juvenile Fillies Turf
Sunset Glow has never been out of the top two in all five career runs, winning three and finishing within two lengths of Cursory Glance in the Albany Stakes at Ascot in June. This form looks solid and could lead to the first winning favourite of this race.
Lady Eli has won two from two and was an impressive three length winner in the Miss Grillo Stakes at Belmont Park in September. She steps up in grade today but should be open to further progression.
Lady Eli (E/W)
Close Hatches won four in a row earlier this year before a below par fourth last month, finishing behind Don’t Tell Sophia and Ria Antonia who re-oppose today. With a career record of nine wins and two seconds from thirteen she has won at the highest level and will be looking to go one better than last year when finishing second to Beholder.
Untapable has won five from six this year, including three group 1’s. She looks an exciting prospect and should run well here although this will be her first attempt racing against her elders.
Close Hatches (WIN)
Saturday 1st November
19:05 Juvenile Fillies
57% of favourites have won this race, although this drops to 28% when the race has been run at Santa Anita.
Angela Renee is a group 1 winner having won the Chandelier Stakes here in September but has only won two from four so is passed over in the hope of finding a bit more value.
Cristina’s Journey is proven over trip and has a 100% win record. Winning the Pocahontas Stakes impressively last time out, she is taken to continue her progression here.
Cristina’s Journey (E/W)
19:43 Filly and Mare Turf
Secret Gesture has three wins and five seconds from thirteen races. Her 2014 campaign has seen her maintain a high level of consistency, finishing in the top 3 for all four races. It is difficult to see her finish outside the places here and odds of around 10/1 look a decent each way price.
Dank won four from five in 2013 but has only raced twice this year, finishing third and fifth and arrives looking to defend her crown needing to find a bit of form.
Secret Gesture (E/W)
20:21 Filly and Mare Sprint
Judy The Beauty finished second in this race last year, half a length behind two-time winner Groupie Doll. In seventeen runs, she has won eight times and has only finished outside the top three once (finished fourth). Proven at the highest level, she should go well again today.
Artemis Agrotera has a 71% win rate and looks likely to go off as favourite. She was fifth in the Juvenile Fillies last year, one of only two career races she hasn’t won. It is worth noting that, Before Groupie Dolls’ victories, the favourite in this race had won 0 from 5.
Judy The Beauty (WIN)
21:05 Turf Sprint
50% of winners have gone off favourite in this race and a wide draw is seen to be a distinct advantage due to the tight turn. No Nay Never has drawn stall fourteen and returned from a layoff to win at Keeneland at the beginning of the month.
Dimension is another who arrives on the back of a recent win, beating rivals Something Extra and Undrafted into second and third respectively. Drawn in stall twelve and with leading jockey Ryan Moore on board, he looks to have a decent each way chance.
No Nay Never (WIN)
Daredevil looks to be the new market leader after the withdrawal of American Pharoah and will be looking to maintain his 100% win record, stepping up to nine furlongs after two previous wins over eight furlongs. He beat Upstart (who re-opposes today) by an impressive three lengths in the Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park earlier in the month without coming off the bridle. Both were well clear of the rest of the field and it would be no surprise to see them finishing 1-2 again if both run as well again in this race.
Main Sequence has arguably the best 2014 form of the field, winning three grade 1’s in a row since moving over to the USA. He won 4 in a row at the beginning of his career then hit a dry patch of ten races, before moving over the pond to re-discover winning ways.
Telescope is two from three over twelve furlongs, and with both of those wins coming on good-to-firm ground he must be considered. With four wins and five seconds from ten career races he seems sure to be in the mix again here.
The top three in the market all look closely matched in what is a tough looking renewal. Early favourite Rich Tapestry beat Goldencents earlier this month so will no doubt be popular should Goldencents win the Dirt Mile on Friday. He has a 26% career win rate but this jumps to 83% on dirt.
Palace has seven wins and four seconds from thirteen runs over today’s trip and is has also won over seven furlongs. A proven group 1 and group 2 winner, he should have the quality to ensure a top three finish here.
With six wins and three seconds from eleven races Toronado is the class act of the race. He beat Dawn Approach in the Sussex Stakes in 2013 then finished just a length behind Kingman in the renewal this year.
Seek Again has a 50% win rate on turf and was only a head behind Wise Dan in May this year. He has only won one from four this year but could sneak a place and could be worth a play at decent odds.
Sunday 2nd November
Shared Belief holds an impressive 100% record with seven wins from seven and will surely be a popular choice for many in this race. He has already beat a number of his opponents here and will surely shorten in the betting even more if Fed Biz wins The Dirt Mile on Friday, although it is worth noting that only one favourite has won this race from the last eight.
California Chrome is an obvious danger if he can reproduce the form of earlier in the year when attempting to win the Triple Crown. He failed at the final hurdle in that attempt, being beaten by Tonalist and was behind both Bayern and Candy Boy on his reappearance, all who re-oppose today.
Tonalist has a 50% win rate and looks the most likely to challenge the favourite. He has finished in the first three in every race this year and should have the ability to do the same here.
Bayern has already had nine races this year, winning five. He was an impressive winner last time out but there is a chance that the sheer number of races ran may catch up with him here.
Shared Belief (WIN)
by Dean Kilbryde