BREEDERS CUP WEEKEND SPECIAL

BREEDERS CUP WEEKEND SPECIAL

Friday 31st October

21:25 Juvenile Turf
At first glance Hootenanny looks a worthy favourite. He could hardly have been more impressive over five furlongs at Ascot but has never raced competitively over a mile. Taking this into account I will look elsewhere.
Commemorative has a 100% record over a mile so warrants respect and arrives here looking to complete his hat-trick. With the European turf form generally better than the US equivalent a price of around 10/1 looks generous for an in-form horse who is proven over trip.
Commemorative (E/W)

22:05 Dirt Mile
Goldencents sets the standard here, having won this race last year. He has already beat a few of todays’ opposition and is the one to beat, although it is worth noting that no favourite has won this race from seven attempts.
Fed Biz beat Goldencents in August 2013 although the positions were reversed when they met again in August 2014. In his last race he finished second to Shared Belief who is unbeaten in seven and is currently favourite for the Classic, so the form holds up well.
Fed Biz (E/W)

22:50 Juvenile Fillies Turf
Sunset Glow has never been out of the top two in all five career runs, winning three and finishing within two lengths of Cursory Glance in the Albany Stakes at Ascot in June. This form looks solid and could lead to the first winning favourite of this race.
Lady Eli has won two from two and was an impressive three length winner in the Miss Grillo Stakes at Belmont Park in September. She steps up in grade today but should be open to further progression.
Lady Eli (E/W)

23:35 Distaff
Close Hatches won four in a row earlier this year before a below par fourth last month, finishing behind Don’t Tell Sophia and Ria Antonia who re-oppose today. With a career record of nine wins and two seconds from thirteen she has won at the highest level and will be looking to go one better than last year when finishing second to Beholder.
Untapable has won five from six this year, including three group 1’s. She looks an exciting prospect and should run well here although this will be her first attempt racing against her elders.
Close Hatches (WIN)

Saturday 1st November

19:05 Juvenile Fillies
57% of favourites have won this race, although this drops to 28% when the race has been run at Santa Anita.
Angela Renee is a group 1 winner having won the Chandelier Stakes here in September but has only won two from four so is passed over in the hope of finding a bit more value.
Cristina’s Journey is proven over trip and has a 100% win record. Winning the Pocahontas Stakes impressively last time out, she is taken to continue her progression here.
Cristina’s Journey (E/W)

19:43 Filly and Mare Turf
Secret Gesture has three wins and five seconds from thirteen races. Her 2014 campaign has seen her maintain a high level of consistency, finishing in the top 3 for all four races. It is difficult to see her finish outside the places here and odds of around 10/1 look a decent each way price.
Dank won four from five in 2013 but has only raced twice this year, finishing third and fifth and arrives looking to defend her crown needing to find a bit of form.
Secret Gesture (E/W)

20:21 Filly and Mare Sprint
Judy The Beauty finished second in this race last year, half a length behind two-time winner Groupie Doll. In seventeen runs, she has won eight times and has only finished outside the top three once (finished fourth). Proven at the highest level, she should go well again today.
Artemis Agrotera has a 71% win rate and looks likely to go off as favourite. She was fifth in the Juvenile Fillies last year, one of only two career races she hasn’t won. It is worth noting that, Before Groupie Dolls’ victories, the favourite in this race had won 0 from 5.
Judy The Beauty (WIN)

21:05 Turf Sprint
50% of winners have gone off favourite in this race and a wide draw is seen to be a distinct advantage due to the tight turn. No Nay Never has drawn stall fourteen and returned from a layoff to win at Keeneland at the beginning of the month.
Dimension is another who arrives on the back of a recent win, beating rivals Something Extra and Undrafted into second and third respectively. Drawn in stall twelve and with leading jockey Ryan Moore on board, he looks to have a decent each way chance.
No Nay Never (WIN)

21:43 Juvenile
Daredevil looks to be the new market leader after the withdrawal of American Pharoah and will be looking to maintain his 100% win record, stepping up to nine furlongs after two previous wins over eight furlongs. He beat Upstart (who re-opposes today) by an impressive three lengths in the Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park earlier in the month without coming off the bridle. Both were well clear of the rest of the field and it would be no surprise to see them finishing 1-2 again if both run as well again in this race.
Daredevil (WIN)

22:22 Turf
Main Sequence has arguably the best 2014 form of the field, winning three grade 1’s in a row since moving over to the USA. He won 4 in a row at the beginning of his career then hit a dry patch of ten races, before moving over the pond to re-discover winning ways.
Telescope is two from three over twelve furlongs, and with both of those wins coming on good-to-firm ground he must be considered. With four wins and five seconds from ten career races he seems sure to be in the mix again here.
Telescope (WIN)

23:01 Sprint
The top three in the market all look closely matched in what is a tough looking renewal. Early favourite Rich Tapestry beat Goldencents earlier this month so will no doubt be popular should Goldencents win the Dirt Mile on Friday. He has a 26% career win rate but this jumps to 83% on dirt.
Palace has seven wins and four seconds from thirteen runs over today’s trip and is has also won over seven furlongs. A proven group 1 and group 2 winner, he should have the quality to ensure a top three finish here.
Palace (E/W)

23:40 Mile
With six wins and three seconds from eleven races Toronado is the class act of the race. He beat Dawn Approach in the Sussex Stakes in 2013 then finished just a length behind Kingman in the renewal this year.
Seek Again has a 50% win rate on turf and was only a head behind Wise Dan in May this year. He has only won one from four this year but could sneak a place and could be worth a play at decent odds.
Toronado (WIN)

Sunday 2nd November

00:35 Classic
Shared Belief holds an impressive 100% record with seven wins from seven and will surely be a popular choice for many in this race. He has already beat a number of his opponents here and will surely shorten in the betting even more if Fed Biz wins The Dirt Mile on Friday, although it is worth noting that only one favourite has won this race from the last eight.
California Chrome is an obvious danger if he can reproduce the form of earlier in the year when attempting to win the Triple Crown. He failed at the final hurdle in that attempt, being beaten by Tonalist and was behind both Bayern and Candy Boy on his reappearance, all who re-oppose today.
Tonalist has a 50% win rate and looks the most likely to challenge the favourite. He has finished in the first three in every race this year and should have the ability to do the same here.
Bayern has already had nine races this year, winning five. He was an impressive winner last time out but there is a chance that the sheer number of races ran may catch up with him here.
Shared Belief (WIN)

by Dean Kilbryde

PADDOCKS PATENT (FRIDAY)

PADDOCKS PATENT (FRIDAY)

13:00 Newmarket
The penultimate meeting at Newmarket this season provides our three selections this afternoon, the first of which runs in the 13:00. A two year old Maiden race ran over 7 furlongs.
Richard Hannon saddles Tawdeea a well bred colt for owner Hamdan Al Maktoum. In his maiden season as trainer he has a healthy 9 winners from just 29 runners when sending out the owner’s juveniles and this son of Intikhab could well put him in to double figures and market support would be noteworthy.
Crown Command looked a willing partner for jockey Martin Dwyer on debut, possibly hitting the front too early before being headed close home a repeat of that performance on similarly forecast ground would make him hard to beat.
Crack Shot For trainer Clive Brittan is the selection here, running well second time up to defy big odds when finishing a close enough second to a William Haggas filly who has been holding her own at a higher level than this. The third that day has franked the form going on to win its subsequent maiden very easily and earning an official rating of 90. Repetition of his second start should put Crack Shot in the shake up here.
Crack Shot (WIN)

13:30 Newmarket
Our second selection can be found in the 13:30. A Class 4 handicap ran over 1 mile 2 furlongs.
Lungarno Palace is at the front end of the market in what looks a very open race. The John Gallagher trained gelding comes here off the back of a two length defeat in a similar contest at York. Ben Curtis is an eye-catching booking for the stable, winning 2 of his 4 starts for the yard this year. Lungarno Palace is a winner over the trip but likely will once again get going all too late.
The pick here will be the Richard Fahey trained Ventura Quest who takes a fair drop in Class here. The booking of Paul Hanangan is always a positive for the stable and this year has been especially profitable yielding a profit of £52.80 to £1 stakes. Finishing well beaten over further last time on this course the return to ten furlongs should see him in a better light, and with forecast ground unlikely to be a hindrance he is taken to get his head in front here.
Excellent Puck wears blinkers for the first time and this could be the key to Shaun Lycett’s charge resuming the progress he showed over the winter last year and he could well be involved in the finish here under Luke Morris.
Ventura Quest (WIN)

16:15 Newmarket
The last time Stuart Kittow sent a 3 year old to the Rowley Mile was as far back as 2011. That year he saddled May Be Some Time who provided him with a win and a 1 ¼ length third at the track. Today he saddles our final selection Duelling Dragon bought from Qatar Racing just 5 days ago he looks to be hoping to capitalise on what could be a lenient mark. Rated just 73 when winning his maiden last time at Redcar he has gone up just 2lbs and the second that day has won since and is now running of a mark of 82 on official ratings.
Lightly raced and in receipt of a 3lb weight allowance it could be argued that he is effectively 10lb well in here , and he should have no problem finishing in the first three in a race that lacks much depth.
Sweet Martoni should be the main danger here, finishing behind his lesser fancied stable mate In heavy ground at Windsor. Prior to that run she had shown a good level of form and the slight drop back to a mile will help but it could just be that the handicapper has her about right.
World Record could go well at a decent price, returned to a mile should see a better effort than the last twice and Cam Hardie claims a valuable 3lb allowance.
Duelling Dragon (E/W)

PADDOCKS PATENT (THURSDAY)

PADDOCKS PATENT (THURSDAY)

13:25 Clonmel
For my first selection today we head to Clonmel for a mares maiden hurdle run over two miles and four furlongs.
Tommy Cooper’s four year old filly Louise Royale is the one that catches the eye in this contest. While she was possibly flattered to finish as close as she did behind Willie Mullins exciting mare Morning Run, it is easily the best piece of form brought in to the race. The fact that both pulled well clear of the third horse that day does give the form a bit more strength and a similar sort of effort should see her hard to beat here. What I do like about her is that she has progressed with each one of her runs since moving to Ireland. I think the step up in trip should see her improve once again and with a clear round she is sure to be involved.
The Colin Bowe trained mare Mollyanna possibly brings the next strongest piece of form to the table. Her last two runs would suggest that a mark in the 120+ bracket is attainable and that should be enough to see her involved here. The cheek-pieces also make an appearance for the first time and this just might help her concentrate a bit better. I think she has a bit to find with Tommy Coopers mare but is capable of improving on what she has shown to date.
Of the remainder, Oscar Invitation produced a solid effort last time out behind Sheamus but was in receipt of plenty of weight. Allez Gold tackles hurdles for the first time but her three bumper runs suggest she has ability while Liss Ui Rian was going well before slipping up at Naas eleven days ago.
Louise Royale(WIN)

14:25 Clonmel
For my second selection today we stay in Ireland for a three mile handicap hurdle.
The hat-trick seeking Memories of Milan heads the betting here and has not been seen since winning at Listowel 42 days ago. This will be much softer ground than he has encountered on his last two outings but he does act on cut. While there is a good chance that the gelding can follow up again here, I think there looks a bit of each way value to be had in this.
The one that looks the each way value in this is Edward Cawley’s Forever Gold who returns from a 150 day absence. A mark of 107 looks very lenient as the son of Gold Well looks like he could be value for a stone on that mark. The ground also poses no concerns and the hood going on for the first time is also interesting. As long as he puts in a clear round and is fit enough on return, he is sure to have a say in the finish.
Of the remainder, the Supreme Racing Clubs Wood Breizh has been a bit disappointing but may find this easier than some of the company he has been keeping. Perries Hill and The Winkler should also have a say for minor honors.
Forever Gold (E/W if 5/1+)

15:55 Clonmel
My last selection runs in a mares beginners chase run over two miles two furlongs and 220yds.
It is hard to oppose Jennies Jewel in this as she was easily the best of these over hurdles. An outing on the flat and a pop over hurdles should see her arrive here much sharper than her main rivals. If taking to fences the first time of asking the mare should prove hard to beat in this.
Willie Mullins Gigginstown inmate Urticaire is probably the biggest danger to Jennies Jewel in this. On hurdles form she has the best part of a stone to find with Jennies Jewel but may improve for larger obstacles. With a clear round she is sure to be involved but is going to have to improve a good bit to trouble Jennies Jewel.
The only other runner in this you could give a serious chance to is Our Katie but like Urticaire, she is going to have to improve a good bit to trouble Jennies Jewel.
Jennies Jewel (WIN)

PADDOCKS PATENT (WEDNESDAY)

PADDOCKS PATENT (WEDNESDAY)

13:30 Nottingham
Starting off today’s action with the first from Nottingham. An open looking five furlong handicap awaits but despite the large number of runners I am really taken by one of them.
Tim Easterby’s Hazelrigg ran well when finishing third last time out and should come on again for that run. The horse will relish conditions and has decent form at the course as well.
Despite the numerous runners I just can’t look past it.
Of the remaining entries the most noticeable danger is Haajes who certainly has what it takes to have a hand in this. This said however with a four pound rise since it’s last race the ten year old may not have enough to get its head in front here.
Both horses are vying for favouritism at around 7/1 but the nine year old who is now eight pounds lower than its last winning mark is definitely worth an each way punt.
Hazelrigg (E/W if 5/1+)

16:05 Punchestown
Over the sea to Ireland as our second selection of the day is at Punchestown in their final race of the meeting.
In all honesty it’s not the most obscure choice and the price isn’t going to be anything like a lottery win but I don’t think there’ll be a bigger certainty all day. With words such as that I have undoubtedly given it the kiss of death but Noel Meade’s Virtuoso Rouge looks a good thing.
A promising second two starts back looks decent form and it shouldn’t have to be too good a horse to beat, what may be seen as, substandard competition.
The horse that I think has the only chance of causing a remote upset is Tony Martin’s Delvin Road and with an apprentice jockey taking seven pounds off the horse it should have a chance but nothing to trouble the likely favourite.
Virtuoso Rouge (WIN)

19:25 Kempton
We end the day on the sand as we take in a race on the all-weather. Kempton hosts an evening meeting and we tackle their sixth race on the card.
Today seems to be one in which I’ve gone with a few favourites and the trend is continuing throughout all three of my picks.
Godolphin are hitting form as the season draws to an end and they’re picking up winners on the artificial suffice too. I’m hoping that this race is another they can add to their tally as the Saeed Bin Suroor trained Tabjeel lines up in this. A win last time out after very respectable placed efforts all read well and although another step up is probably needed I think the horse has the ability to do just that.
The extra furlong should be a benefit to the horse and despite the dangers that both Opera Box and dark horse Yojojo possess, it’s another race where I think the favourite should prevail.
Tabjeel (WIN)

by Rory Paddock

WEEKLY NEWS ROUND UP

WEEKLY NEWS ROUND UP

The National Hunt season is really beginning to kick off now, and this weekends fixtures and possible line up’s are something to get excited for. The likelihood of seeing Silviniaco Conti, More of That, At Fishers Cross, First Lieutenant, Rocky Creek, Ma Filleule and Boston Bob to name a few, gets the juices going.

Last Saturday saw the first fixture of the season at Aintree, where the first Grade 2 of the season, The Old Roan Chase took place. It was won in good style by Wishful Thinking, making it third time lucky for him. He’s 11 years young who is loving what he does, which is so great to see. There was no sign of a wind problem here, which was great to see. Runner up was Edgardo Sol, who has switched stables from Paul Nicholls and Emma Lavelle. It was a fab ride from Aiden Coleman to finish where he did – the horse couldn’t have stayed any closer to the rail, or jumped any fence closer to the edge if he’d tried. For me, one to watch this season. Uxizandre opened up his campaign in a quiet style. He didn’t get to hard a race, and so had a lovely pipe opener before the Paddy Power at Cheltenham next month.

Over at Chepstow, Blaklion really caught my eye, when winning the Persian War hurdle in impressive style, in the same colours as The New One. He jumped like a buck all of the way round, and I couldn’t help but feel it was a classy performance. Jamie Moore looks to be picking up some cute rides for Nigel Twiston-Davies with son Sam now tied down to Nicholls. He’s another who’ll probably head to Cheltenham’s Paddy Power meeting. Trainer Twiston-Davies said after the race that he’ll need further, so when it comes to looking ahead to the Festival in March, his race is still an unkown, with the Neptune and Albert Bartlett both possibilities. He’s been shortened for both anyway. The race was unfortunately marred by the news that Son Du Berlais had to be put down, following a bad tendon injury, so thoughts to the connections of that classy four year old.

Shelford was another who caught my eye. You can’t help but notice a gutsy horse who clearly loves what he does. He looked a gutsy little thing with his ears back and a face full of determination. His previous race at Ascot has some good form now so he’s one to note too. As is the trainer – I think Dan Skelton will prove himself to be a top trainer this season, and with brother Harry riding for him, their a pair to watch this year.

With the Breeder’s Cup approaching us this weekend, the Flat Racing is still very much still in swing. There are a huge amount of British and Irish heading over, with Mile favourite Toronado been cut to 2-1 from 9-4 with Coral after getting a perfect post in gate five for Saturday’s contest. Coral also shaved Dank a fraction to 7-4 favourite for the Filly & Mare Turf after being drawn in gate three as she bids to repeat last year’s victory for Sir Michael Stoute and Ryan Moore. Frankie Dettori has been given the challenge of riding Chicquita, who threw away a winning chance in the British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes at Ascot, in the Turf with Joseph O’Brien on defending champ Magician. Chicquita starts from gate twelve with Magician in eight, one outside Andre Fabre’s favourite Flintshire.

I was gutted to hear that Ballyalton has been ruled out the season by trainer Ian Williams. He was on my ‘to follow’ list for the season, and really thought this season would be an amazing one for connections. Hopefully though he’ll come back better and stronger next season. It must have been a hard decision, but it should be worth it.

PADDOCKS PATENT (TUESDAY)

PADDOCKS PATENT (TUESDAY)

14:00 Windsor
We start our day’s previews with a 3Yo+ handicap. Andrew Balding’s Geordan Murphy makes his handicap debut after winning over course and distance fifteen days ago; he was hardly off the bridal when tracking the leaders and cruised to the front with two furlongs to go and was eased down in the final half furlong; he looks a very promising three year old and can make his winning start in handicap company.
The biggest dangers look to come from Piccadilly Jim and Chess Valley. The latter was closing in on the winner with every stride last time out and she can run off the same mark again today. The former wasn’t disgraced on his handicap debut finishing a respectable third; he took a while to get going but when he did he was hacking up the ground and stepping up to this extra furlong today should suit. Geordan Murphy has to get my vote to make a winning handicap debut.
Geordan Murphy (WIN)

14:30 Windsor
We stay here at Windsor for our second preview of the day another 3Yo+ handicap. So Noble comes here today seeking his hat-trick after winning over course and distance eight days ago; he looked to be eased down in the final stages and seem to have a bit more left in the tank and should go in again, but the ground holds question marks against him.
The other two that look interesting in this are Rangi Chase and Mendacious Harpy, the latter was beaten by So Noble here eight days ago but has proven form on soft ground and should be able to reverse the form in the running today, but the former looks more promising he pulled away from the field in impressive style last time out and the horse who was second that day has gone on to win so he is my selection today.
Rangi Chase (E/W)

19:10 Wolverhampton
We end the day with a two mile handicap on the all-weather. Rowlestone Lass and Lacey look to be the two favourites in the field, the former has been knocking on the door most of the season and is climbing up the weights without winning and is raised a further two pounds here again today; she’s only been tried at this distance once in the past and it didn’t look to suit her so her being entered in this today is surprising as she looks more suited to twelve furlongs. The latter was only beaten by a neck last time out over course and distance where he seemed to leave it too late but was rallying home in the final stages.
The biggest danger looks to be Honest Strike, he was only a short head behind Lacy when finishing third back in September over course and distance and comes here on better terms then Lacy today; he hasn’t won in over a year but he seems to now be down to a fair mark and can come back to winning ways again today.
Honest Strike (E/W)

PADDOCKS PATENT (MONDAY)

PADDOCKS PATENT (MONDAY)

14:00 Leicester
Our first race of the day sees seven scheduled to go to post, where La Tinta Bay is forecast to be the early favourite. She has attempted todays’ race distance on five occasions without success, with her best effort coming when third on soft ground at Newbury in September. Although placed, she was still over five lengths behind the winner and has only managed wins over shorter distances on better ground so is opposed today.
Zain Zone is a course and distance winner and should be respected having won on heavy ground here two weeks ago. Prior to this win his best performances had come on better ground and he has been raised 3lbs for the win, so preference is for Trixie Malone.
The selection is proven over seven furlongs and notched up a hat-trick of wins on soft and good-to-soft ground in the spring. Returning to the track earlier this month after taking a summer break she ran a credible fifth in a class three handicap and should be strong enough to win now dropped in class and with conditions to suit.
Trixie Malone (WIN)

15:30 Leicester
Our second race is a class two handicap, the feature race of the day here at Leicester. Two that really caught the eye in the line-up are the early favourite Rewayya and the Charlie Appleby trained Blue Rambler.
Rewaaya has won two from three over todays’ race distance, both wins coming on similar ground to what is forecast today and both by wide margins. She wasn’t disgraced when finishing eighth of twenty four in a hot handicap earlier in the month and could bounce back to winning ways today.
Blue Rambler is a fascinating prospect, looking to make it five wins from five. Proven on soft ground and over similar race distances, he looks to defend his unbeaten record and if transferring his form from France after a lengthy absence he should prove tough to beat.
Of the remainder, Fattsota has a 33% win rate over todays’ trip and has been in decent form recently so could figure if either of the above two run below expectation.
Blue Rambler (WIN)

15:35 Galway
We travel to Galway for our final selection of the day for a two mile handicap hurdle. With seventeen scheduled runners there is always the chance of a big priced winner popping up but with three runners fighting it out at the head of the market it seems prudent to concentrate on these.

Pleased As Punch has won two from three over todays’ race distance prior to finishing runner-up to Daigreen last time out. The third from this race has gone on to win twice since so the form for both seems particularly strong.
Daigreen arrives here at the top of his game and attempts to make it three wins in a row. He beat the aforementioned Pleased As Punch by over two lengths in his last race and, with similar conditions likely today the hat-trick beckons.
Roadtotheisland was last seen finishing second to Valours Minion who won again yesterday, although this was over twenty furlongs and over todays’ shorter trip he has been less than convincing.
Daigreen (WIN)